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October 14, 2011 / 74

Wherein I Called BS On the “Recovery” 18 Mos Ago

Here’s another of my articles from the past that still applies. This one was written and published on Thurs Apr 15, 2010, 18 months ago.  One change I’ve made in this article since it was published, in the piece I referred to an “economic recession” – which name I’ve since changed to a “Business cycle recession” – as the new term more accurately describes the type. So… enjoy!

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I picked up my copy of the WSJ this morning and right there above the fold was an “article” titled, “Evidence Mounts of Strong Recovery.” Now, being printed in the NEWS section of the paper, and the use of the word “Evidence” would lead you to believe that there actually WAS “evidence” that a “strong recovery” was actually happening and the writer of this piece was going to SHOW it to you! Right?

Well… only if you’re one of those people who only scan the headlines – in which case you’d go through the day thinking that things are looking UP! Right?

Well… how about I quote a couple of bits for you from the article. From the FIRST (lead) paragraph we find this:

“Shoppers turned up in surprising force… adding to a growing sense… recovery could prove faster than anticipated.”

Notice all the weasel words? “Surprising force – growing sense – could prove”

And Paragraph 2:

Combined with a rebounding service sector, rising financial markets and new efforts to forgive mortgage debts, March’s 1.6% surge in retail sales is tempting forecasters to upgrade their assessments of the economy’s ability to restore the 8.2 million jobs lost since the recession began.”

More of them – “rebounding – rising – new efforts – tempting forecasters – assessments”

And there’s lots more of the same throughout the piece. If the word “evidence” is in the title – don’t you think that there should BE some?

Have you ever heard the dictum, “Don’t try to bull@!$%# a bull@!$%#ter?” I’m an accountant – so I can see a lot of things in the economy that most people don’t see. I know what causes inflation, and I know that the main measure that these people are using to demonstrate how WONDERFULLY the economy is doing is GDP – Gross Domestic Product – which is “all the money spent on goods and services” in the US, and the GDP INCLUDES GOVERNMENT SPENDING. Think about that. What it means is the more the government spends, the better the economy is – RIGHT? You believe that, don’t you.

I’m also a writer. Words are my business. So when some clown comes along and tries to slide crap like this past us, it just irritates the heck out of me.

Personal income is DOWN (since Obama took office – no reflection on Obama – just a fact.) Personal spending is UP (since… when? Last year when spending was doing WHAT?) And how much of that spending came from tax refunds – people buying things they couldn’t afford the rest of the year – but now they got this cash infusion and they rush out to spend it. So what’s spending going to do NEXT month? One month is NOT a trend!!! And if spending is up and income is down… that’s not a foreshadowing of good things ahead of us!

Bernanke (BBB) has an article on page 18 that says he doesn’t expect inflation – yet I read (and seeded) this morning an article where the FED created over $400 Billion and lent it somewhere to someone and NO one but the FED knows who or why and THEY aren’t TALKING about it… so there’s massive creation of US Dollars going on, dollars that are not going into the US economy – but BBB doesn’t expect inflation…

I’m looking around me, reading stories and facts and opinions and what I’m seeing is that all the big wheels in government and finance are saying “YEA! WE’RE RECOVERING!!! TRUST US!” But I’m not seeing any numbers that would back such a view up.

Meanwhile, unemployment continues to go UP. This is not an Economic Recession/Depression. It’s a FINANCIAL recession/Depression. In a financial recession, unemployment is a LEADING indicator – not a lagging indicator (as in an economic recession.) With unemployment as a leading indicator going up, that means the economy is still going DOWN!!!

So – with all the BS flying around, do YOU see “evidence”? Or do you smell BS? In either case – this piece should be on the OPINION page – not a NEWS page.


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